Studies, such as the UNEP-DHI Centre study, can be a critical first step in identifying and quantifying the root causes of flooding. The study sought to:
- Establish a joint scientific understanding of the lake and its river basins
- Set up a monitoring system for Lake Turkana and its river basins
- Evaluate scenarios to tackle the specific issues and hotspots identified, combining water resources developments, rehabilitation and adaptation measures, and climate change projections
- Implement pilot demonstrations for ecosystem rehabilitation
Based on detailed scenario modelling, the work undertaken generated elements to support dialogue and water diplomacy between the two nations. This included the identification of possible initiatives that could help mitigate the effects of climate change, such as the building of barriers around the lake to help prevent flooding.
One scenario demonstrated that it is possible to maintain and even improve hydropower production in Ethiopia while achieving a certain balance in Lake Turkana water levels. This would require that Ethiopia develop alternative power sources for the dry season. If this were possible, it would provide a way to meet some of the ecological requirements of Lake Turkana and the surrounding area while respecting Ethiopia’s need for hydropower.
Another example of scenario modelling focused on reforestation, soil and water conservation. The aim was to assess how reforestation, agroforestry, and soil and water conservation measures may reduce flooding, soil erosion and landslides. The conclusion was that ‘reforestation, agroforestry and soil and water have an impact on the water balance, the path the water takes, as well as soil and nutrient balances.’2 Downstream, ‘the risk of flash floods and flooding in general are considerably reduced’ and there would be ‘a clear improvement of the water quality in the rivers downstream, including less turbidity and less E. coli.’3